WTIO21 PGTW 172030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 84.8E TO 12.5N 79.5E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 172000Z 
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 83.5E. THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6N 83.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 242 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 171614Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DISTINCT LLCC. A 171630Z ASCAT-B 
IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 20-25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH 
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SOMEWHAT 
BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM 
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
182030Z.//
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