ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.8N 69.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 237 
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 171403Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC WITH MOST OF 
THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VWS, VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN 
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL SEE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.6N 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER 
OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 171106Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKLY DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO 
THE WEST. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) 
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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