ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/141800Z-151800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.3N 97.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 315 
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 141445Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT SPORADIC CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
EASTERLY OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM 
(29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE 
THAT 92B WILL TRACK TOWARD THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY, 
BUT DISAGREE REGARDING INTENSIFICATION. NAVGEM SHOWS INCREASING 
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN 92B 
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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