WTIO31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 13.1N 80.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 80.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 13.3N 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 13.5N 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 79.8E. 11NOV21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM WEST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA. WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM CHENNAI HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE AND RISE IN SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS INDICATING TC 04B HAS MADE ITS WAY OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI LOOP AND AN 111045Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 1.5 (25 KTS) AT THE 0900Z ANALYSIS WHILE TC 04B WAS STILL OVER WATER. SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM CHENNAI AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL WERE 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. TC 04B WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN INDIA AND MAY MOVE OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 04B WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER LAND, WITH AFUM BEING THE OUTLIER SHOWING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO AFUM'S ERRATIC MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET.// NNNN