ABIO10 PGTW 102000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/102000Z-111800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.9N 82.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 122 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 101522Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A 
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION SHEARED 80+ NM NORTHWESTWARD OF AN EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PATCHES OF 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY UNDER THE FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY 
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD AND WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 101930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH//
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