WTIO21 PGTW 101930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 82.3E TO 13.7N 79.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111018Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 82.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 
101522Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION SHEARED 
80+ NM NORTHWESTWARD OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
PATCHES  OF 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY UNDER THE 
FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY MODERATE TO 
STRONG (20-30KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND 
WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
111930Z.//
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