ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.4N 87.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 198 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 101522Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD AREA 
OF CONVECTION HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS OF 25-30KT WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS). DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
91B WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY IN THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN