ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN/OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.0N 89.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091226Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
DISORGANIZED FORMATIVE BANDING CONVECTION WITH BROAD MID TO LOW 
LEVEL TURNING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 091424Z METOP-
A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EASTERLY OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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