ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN/OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.0N 89.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 616 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL TURNING AROUND AN 
ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PUNCTUATED BY DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 91B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GFS AND 
NAVGEM ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT, WHEREAS ECMWF AND 
ICON ARE MUCH MORE RESERVED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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