ABIO10 PGTW 081330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/081330Z-081800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7N 
89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 667 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID TO LOW 
LEVEL TURNING AROUND AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (05-
10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
91B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GFS AND NAVGEM 
ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT, WHEREAS ECMWF AND ICON ARE 
MUCH MORE RESERVED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
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