WTPN21 PHNC 061430 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZNOV21// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 110.0W TO 15.7N 115.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 110.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 107.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 110.3W, APPROXIMATELY 563NM SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), OFFSET BY HIGH (20- 25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071430Z. // NNNN