WTPN21 PHNC 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 107.4W TO 14.2N 114.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110512Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 107.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.7N 107.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 107.5W, APPROXIMATELY 
674NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CENTRALIZED CONVECTION AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 12-24HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061430Z.
//
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