WTPN21 PHNC 032000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 87.2W TO 9.6N 91.1W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
87.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N 87.5W 
APPROXIMATELY 2,224 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE 
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
042000Z.
//
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