ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/311800ZOCT-011800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.1S 80.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 79.6E, APPROXIMATELY 586 
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311118Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEFINED BY WELL-DEFINED, BUT SHALLOW 
BANDING WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26C) OFFSET BY GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT THE MID-LEVELS THAT IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
GENERALLY WESTWARD, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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