WTXS21 PGTW 310930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302051Z OCT 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 312100)//
RMKS/
1.REMARKS: 
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 
82.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 80.2E, APPROXIMATELY 576 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310802Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEFINED BY WELL-DEFINED, BUT SHALLOW 
BANDING WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) NORTHEAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26C) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT 
THROUGHOUT THE MID-LEVELS THAT IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, BUT IT IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO LOW. THIS CANCELS REF A.
//
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