ABIO10 PGTW 310930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/310930Z-311800ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302051ZOCT2021
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.1S 82.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 80.2E, APPROXIMATELY 576 
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310802Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEFINED BY WELL-DEFINED, BUT SHALLOW 
BANDING WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) NORTHEAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26C) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT 
THROUGHOUT THE MID-LEVELS THAT IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, BUT IT IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO LOW. THIS CANCELS REF A.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) 
(INVEST 93S).//
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