WTXS21 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292051ZOCT21//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 292100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0S 82.8E TO 14.0S 77.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S 82.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.9S 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 665 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301253Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEFINED BY SHALLOW BANDING WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 301543Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS 
AN ELONGATED DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED GALE FORCE WINDS TO 
THE SOUTHWEST AND EXTENSIVE 20-25KT WINDS ENCAPSULATING THE 
REMAINING QUADRANTS. FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, THERE IS 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET 
BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT THE MID-LEVELS THAT IS HINDERING 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, SST VALUES AT 27-28C ARE CONDUCIVE. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WESTWARD 
AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
312100Z.//
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