ABIO10 PGTW 302130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/302130Z-311800ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302051ZOCT2021
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.9S 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 665 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301253Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEFINED BY SHALLOW BANDING WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 301543Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS 
AN ELONGATED DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED GALE FORCE WINDS TO 
THE SOUTHWEST AND EXTENSIVE 20-25KT WINDS ENCAPSULATING THE 
REMAINING QUADRANTS. FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, THERE IS 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET 
BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT THE MID-LEVELS THAT IS HINDERING 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, SST VALUES AT 27-28C ARE CONDUCIVE. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WESTWARD 
AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 302100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) 
(INVEST 93S).//
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