ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) NONE.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.0N 150.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 377 
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 292046Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS BROAD DISORGANIZED 
FLARING CONVECTION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SHARP 
TROPICAL WAVE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITHIN THE AREA OF 
SHARPEST CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THE CUSP OF THE WAVE FEATURE.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM TO BE IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 90W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRANSIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING RAPID 
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND SUBSEQUENT 
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA ON OR BEFORE 01/00Z IVO 
OF GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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