WTXS21 PGTW 292100 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 86.7E TO 12.8S 80.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 291810Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 86.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 86.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 851 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291307Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL 291604Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS THE EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LLC WITH 20-25 KT WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 302100Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PREVIOUS POSITION IN PARA. 2.// NNNN