ABIO10 PGTW 292130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN REISSUED/292130Z-301800ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.6S 86.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 851 
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 291307Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). A PARTIAL 291604Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS THE EAST SIDE OF 
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLC WITH 20-25 KT WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 93S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 292100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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