ABIO10 PGTW 290230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/290230Z-291800ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.6S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 87.1E, APPROXIMATELY 870 NM 
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. A 290028Z SSMIS 
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS WELL 
AS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW 
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (30+ KT) 
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT 93S WILL 
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM. //
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