ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6S 
86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 842 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED, 
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 281626Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B 
PASS SHOWS A 30-35 KNOT WIND FIELD APPROXIMATELY 70-80 NM TO THE 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LLC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE 
AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELD IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MJO EVENT 
TAKING PLACE OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO 
ENHANCEMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (25+ KT) 
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S 
WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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