ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZOCT2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260451ZOCT2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26OCT21 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.7N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 348 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 260300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.    
  (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2N 113.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.7E, APPROXIMATELY 
 295NM EAST HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC SUPPORTED BY A 252321Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, AND 
A 2500157Z ASCAT PASS REVEALING A TIGHT SYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD WITH 
15-20 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, UNASSOCIATED WITH THE 25-30 
KNOT NORTHERLY SURGE TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 99W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 
HOURS. ANTICIPATE A FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 260500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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