ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24OCT21 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH OF ULITHI, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.5N 117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
138 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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