ABPW10 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240300Z-240600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 240300Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 139.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH OF ULITHI, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. 
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2N 142.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.5N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 232043Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A BROAD, EXPOSED AREA OF 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW. 
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS. ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
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