ABPW10 PGTW 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/232200Z-240600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/232121ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
298 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 231857Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 98W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AS IT 
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 232130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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