ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.6N 143.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 189 
NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MUTLISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THE 
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES WRAPPING INTO A FULLY-EXPOSED, 
BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVED DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW DUE TO A COL 
REGION POSITIONED TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 
NORTHEAST. LOW (5-15 KT) VWS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30C ARE 
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT 98W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS 
HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT IN MODELING INTENSITY WITH GFS BEING THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE, FORECASTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY TAU 36. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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