ABPW10 PGTW/201900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT/TYPHOON/WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201900Z-210600ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 154.4E, APPROXIMATELY 574NM EAST OF GUAM. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL ASMR2 36GHZ 201545Z PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED 
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD, WITH SOME SMALL DISPARITY BETWEEN WHETHER IT WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA 
BEFORE OR AFTER PASSING GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO LOW. //
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