ABPW10 PGTW 100600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2021// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZOCT2021// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100152ZOCT2021// REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091921ZOCT2021// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A /TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 10OCT21 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (LIONROCK) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.4E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 10OCT21 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (NAMTHEUN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 337 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 130.8E HAS MERGED WITH INVEST 94W AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY LARGE (1000+ NM) MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OFFSET 40+ NM POLEWARD FROM A BROAD, FULLY EXPOSED, AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE LLC HAS VEERED AND BEGAN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12HRS AFTER IT SUPPRESSED AND ABSORBED INVEST 93W (SEE PARA 1.B. (1)). ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION TRAILS LARGE SWATHS OF FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. A 100133Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING AN ELONGATED LLC WITH 30-40 KT WIND BARBS DISPLACED 50+ NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES INDICATE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG (25-35KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN22 PGTW 091930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN