ABPW10 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/092100Z-100600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZOCT2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091451ZOCT2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091921ZOCT2021//
REF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091353ZOCT2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION. REFS C AND D ARE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09OCT21 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (LIONROCK) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 108.7E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 092100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.6N 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
539 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. A 090824Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 15-20 KT WIND 
BARBS AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GREATER THAN 20 KT WIND 
BARBS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT 
FLOW AND CONVECTION, RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 95W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES BEFORE 
RECURVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS 
MEDIUM. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.3N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO BROAD AREAS OF LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY CONVECTION OVERHEAD. THE LLC'S 
APPEAR TO BE INTERACTING WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THEY DRAW CLOSER 
TOGETHER. A 091302Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS THAT THE LLC ASSOCIATED 
WITH INVEST 94W IS MORE WELL-DEFINED, AND THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS 
(40-45 KT)ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS ARE DISPLACED GREATER THAN 90 
NM FROM THE LLC. INVEST 94W, CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION, IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (25-35 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 94W AND 
INVEST 93W WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT, AND MERGE AS THEY PROPAGATE 
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN22 
PGTW 091930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5N 164.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
310 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 090824Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 15-20 KT 
WIND BARBS AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GREATER THAN 20 KT 
WIND BARBS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH 
GRADIENT FLOW AND CONVECTION, RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT 
INTENSIFIES BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF D (WTPN23 PGTW 091400) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) 
(INVEST 94W).//
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