WTPN22 PGTW 091930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921ZOCT21//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091353ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 130.2E TO 17.7N 123.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR IS NOW LOCATED NEAR, APPROXIMATELY XXX OF XXX. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO BROAD AREAS OF 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY CONVECTION OVERHEAD. THE 
LLC'S APPEAR TO BE INTERACTING WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THEY DRAW CLOSER 
TOGETHER. A 091302Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS THAT THE LLC ASSOCIATED 
WITH INVEST 94W IS MORE WELL-DEFINED, AND THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS 
(40-45 KT) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS ARE DISPLACED GREATER THAN 90 
NM FROM THE LLC. INVEST 94W, CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION, IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (25-35 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 94W AND 
INVEST 93W WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT, AND MERGE AS THEY PROPAGATE 
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTPN22 PGTW 081930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
101930Z.
4. SEE REF B (WTPN23 PGTW 091400) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 162.0E.//
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