ABPW10 PGTW 091530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091530Z-100600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZOCT2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091451ZOCT2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921ZOCT2021//
REF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091353ZOCT2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION. REFS C AND D ARE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09OCT21 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (LIONROCK) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 091500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.6N 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
382 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS 
BROAD CONVECTION OBSCURING ANY SIGN OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 
091302Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED AND 
BECOME EMBEDDED IN A BROADER AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH 94W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL DIMINISH AS INVEST 94W 
(REF C) BECOMES THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO MEDIUM. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
539 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. CURRENTLY INVEST 94W IS ONE OF TWO MAJOR 
VORTICES (THE OTHER ONE IS 93W, SEE PARA 1.B.(1)) IN A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION IN THE PHILIPPINE  SEA WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER 
AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS 60+ NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. ANIMATED MSI 
SHOWS A WEAK, FULLY-EXPOSED LLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
SHEARED 150+NM NORTHEASTWARD. THE LLC IS TRACKING TOWARD 93W IN 
APPARENT BINARY INTERACTION. A 082258Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 10-15 KT 
WIND BARBS AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME 30-35 
KT WIND BARBS TO BOTH THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM SSTS (30-31C) AND BOTH 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUT FLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20) VWS. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT EITHER 93W OR 94W WILL INTENSIFY 
AT THE EXPENSE OF THE WEAKER ONE, THEN TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF C (WTPN22 PGTW 081930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5N 164.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
310 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 090824Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 15-20 KT 
WIND BARBS AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GREATER THAN 20 KT 
WIND BARBS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH 
GRADIENT FLOW AND CONVECTION, RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT 
INTENSIFIES BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF D (WTPN23 PGTW 091400) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3). TO HIGH. //
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