WTPN21 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081521ZOCT 21//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921ZOCT21//
REF/C/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091353ZOCT21//
AMPN/REFS A, B, AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.6N 129.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
382 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS 
BROAD CONVECTION OBSCURING ANY SIGN OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 
091302Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED AND 
BECOME EMBEDDED IN A BROADER AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH 94W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL DIMINISH AS INVEST 94W 
(REF B) BECOMES THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A. 
2. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 133.5E. SEE REF C FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 162.0E.//
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