ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZOCT2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081521ZOCT2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921ZOCT2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09OCT21 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (LIONROCK) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 109.5E, APPROXIMATELY 217 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.6N 131.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
411 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. CURRENTLY INVEST 93W IS ONE OF TWO MAJOR 
VORTICES (THE OTHER ONE IS 94W, SEE PARA 1.B.(2)) IN A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS 
OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK, PARTLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE 
EASTERN, SOUTHERN, AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT EITHER 93W OR 94W WILL INTENSIFY AT THE EXPENSE OF 
THE WEAKER ONE, THEN TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 
PGTW 081530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
539 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. CURRENTLY INVEST 94W IS ONE OF TWO MAJOR 
VORTICES (THE OTHER ONE IS 93W, SEE PARA 1.B.(1)) IN A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION IN THE PHILIPPINE  SEA WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER 
AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS 60+ NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. ANIMATED MSI 
SHOWS A WEAK, FULLY-EXPOSED LLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
SHEARED 150+NM NORTHEASTWARD. THE LLC IS TRACKING TOWARD 93W IN 
APPARENT BINARY INTERACTION. A 082258Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 10-15 KT 
WIND BARBS AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME 30-35 
KT WIND BARBS TO BOTH THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM SSTS (30-31C) AND 
BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUT FLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20) 
VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT EITHER 93W OR 94W WILL 
INTENSIFY AT THE EXPENSE OF THE WEAKER ONE, THEN TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN22 PGTW 081930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.8N 166.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 164.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
211 NM SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS BROAD 
CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30C), BUT WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT 
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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