WTPN22 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081521Z OCT 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081530)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1N 134.1E TO 19.2N 129.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 133.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6N 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 133.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
680 NM EAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED >90NM TO THE EAST, EXTENDING 
EQUATORWARD. A 081657Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, AND AN OVERALL ABSENCE OF 
ORGANIZATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. 
INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH 
LIGHT (<15 KNOTS) WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, AND A LARGE SWATH OF 25-30 
KT WINDS DISPLACED >60 NM TO THE EAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT 
OVER THE MAIN CONVECTION, AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FAVORABLE WITH WARM 
(30-31C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (>100 KJ PER SQUARE CM). GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TWO DOMINANT VORTEX CENTERS EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVESTS 93W AND 94W) WILL STEADILY ORBIT ONE 
ANOTHER AND MERGE DUE TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY (ABOUT 250 NM). 
DURING THIS CONSOLIDATION PHASE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
GAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE (WARM-CORE) CHARACTERISTICS WITH IMPROVED 
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS LESS THAN 100NM. 
NUMERICAL MODELS FURTHER AGREE ON A SLOW, GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHICH STORM 
WILL GAIN THE DOMINANT CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
091930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 131.9E.//
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