ABPW10 PGTW 080100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080100Z-080600ZOCT2021// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZOCT2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 07OCT21 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.1E, 179 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 137.7E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 450NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE WITH BROAD TURNING AND MULTIPLE VORTEXES. MSI ALSO INDICATES A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13.7N 129.0E, HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LLC AT THIS TIME. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS INVEST 93W MERGES WITH INVEST 94W. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5N 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE VORTEXES ROTATING AROUND A CENTROID WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, A 070401Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE REVEALS SOME FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS INVEST 93W MERGES WITH INVEST 94W. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5N 166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 289 NM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. A 072253 METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH HIGHER WINDS (20 KNOTS) OFFSET TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(4) AS A MEDIUM.// NNNN