ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5N 112.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
195 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING BUT BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 070050Z GMI 
89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
BROAD LLC. OVERALL, THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED 
WITH A 070236Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING IN CLOSER TO THE BROAD CENTER WITH A 70NM 
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, VERY 
WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE 
TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
13.1N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 450NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. THIS SYSTEM 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION 
WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE WITH BROAD TURNING AND MULTIPLE VORTEXES. 
MSI ALSO INDICATES A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13.7N 129.0E, 
HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LLC AT THIS TIME. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE 
INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS INVEST 93W MERGES 
WITH INVEST 94W. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO 
SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION 
AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
15.5N 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS 
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS MULTIPLE VORTEXES ROTATING AROUND A CENTROID WITH 
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENT 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, A 
070401Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE REVEALS SOME FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE 
INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS INVEST 93W MERGES 
WITH INVEST 94W. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO 
SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION 
AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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