WTPN21 PGTW 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041421ZOCT21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 122.8E TO 11.7N 115.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 116.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.8N 119.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
237 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER AN 
OBSCURED, BROAD, AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 
051128Z  PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 10-15KT WIND BARBS AROUND THE 
CENTER WITH PATCHES OF 20KT WIND BARBS 50+ NM TO THE NORTH AND 20-
25KT WIND BARBS 100+ NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061430Z.
//
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