ABPW10 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051500Z-060600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.8N 119.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
237 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER AN 
OBSCURED, BROAD, AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 
051128Z  PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 10-15KT WIND BARBS AROUND THE 
CENTER WITH PATCHES OF 20KT WIND BARBS 50+ NM TO THE NORTH AND 20-
25KT WIND BARBS 100+ NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051430) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1). //
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