ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.8N 121.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 129 
NM NORTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
AND A 050105Z GMI 89GHZ PASS DEPICT BROAD, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FORMATIVE FRAGMENTED 
RAIN BANDS LOOSELY WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
A 050022Z ASCAT-A DIRECT PASS SHOWS 10-15KT WIND BARBS AROUND THE 
CENTER WITH PATCHES OF 20-25KT WIND BARBS 100+ NM TO THE SOUTH UNDER 
THE RAIN BANDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
92W WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 041430) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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