ABPW10 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041500Z-050600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/ MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041421ZOCT2021
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160 
NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 
041021Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND 
A BROAD LLC. 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN 
ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE INVEST 92W 
WILL STRENGTH TO WARNING CRITERIA AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
NNNN