WTPN21 PGTW 041430 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 121.5E TO 13.4N 116.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 121.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS:: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 041021Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LLC. 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE INVEST 92W WILL STRENGTH TO WARNING CRITERIA AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 051430Z. // NNNN