WTPN21 PGTW 032230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W) CANCELLATION// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022221Z OCT 21// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 022230). THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92W HAS TRACKED OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, LOWERING THE PROBABILITY OF IMMEDIATE FORMATION. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PROBABLE FORMATION ONCE INVEST 92W CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES AND ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.// NNNN