WTPN21 PGTW 022230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 130.9E TO 9.2N 125.6EWITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 022200Z 
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 130.5E. THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 130.5E, 
APPROXIMATELY 719 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 022012Z SSMIS 91 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
92W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A SMALL 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
032230Z.
//
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