ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01OCT21 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 20W (MINDULLE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 012100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 
133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY 
INDICATES A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION. A 020148Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED NO ROTATION AT THE 
SURFACE. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, AS THE 
ASSOCIATED ROTATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE-LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE. INVEST 92W IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE 92W WILL INTESIFY BEFORE REACHING THE 
PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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