ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/301800ZSEP2021-011800ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291721ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 03B) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 72.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 66.9E, 
APPROXIMATELY 149 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301119Z SSMIS 91HZ SATELLITE 
IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SPIRALING 
TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301457Z ASCAT-A 
PASS REVEALS A DISTINCT LLCC WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY. ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW 
(<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 03B WILL 
FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 
PGTW 301730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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