WTIO21 PGTW 301730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS OF TC 03B)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 291721ZSEP21// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 291730)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.7N 67.2E TO 23.4N 63.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 66.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 03B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 71.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 66.9E, APPROXIMATELY 149 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301119Z SSMIS 91HZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SPIRALING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301457Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS A DISTINCT LLCC WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 03B WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 011730Z.// NNNN