ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZSEP2021-010600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30SEP21 0000Z, TYPHOON 20W (MINDULLE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
26.7N 136.4E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 300300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
787 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING, ALBEIT DIMINISHING, CONVECTION SHEARED 150+ 
NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED, WEAK, N-S ELONGATED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MEDIUM EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
91W IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND 
NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN