ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281721ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST REM) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 22.1N 72.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 71.4E, APPROXIMATELY 103 
NM NORTH OF JAFARABAD, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291314Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT 
FORMATIVE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE EDGE OF THE 
INDIAN SHORELINE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS 
ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CIRCULATION ALSO IS MOVING 
TOWARDS AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 03B WILL STRENGTHEN AND 
CONSOLIDATE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND PROPAGATES WEST 
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTIO21 PGTW 291730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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